Monday, September 20, 2010

Short Update - India BSE Sensex Rocks 20,000 thanks to .... ? FIIs ?

Couple of weeks ago I predicted... 

Dow may have Huge upside i.e. even in range  of 35000 - 45000 i.e from 2012 - 2016. (World Markets will follow the trend e.g. Say FTSE UK may touch 20000, BSE Sexsex India may touch 60000 - 70000)

Obviously current market rally is part of same. There will be some interesting advantages and threats India as a country will experience out of this huge upcoming rally. Since this is capital inflow, INR will become stronger gradually against USD till the music is on e.g. at the end of 2016 or whenever this Rally finds it's top, INR - USD conversion may become in bracket of 30 - 35 or even better. However if there in intervention by RBI to keep INR down, That can prove very very costly down the road. 

Because when the music stop, there will be huge capital flight out of country and currency may swing back from it's position to downside may be 45 - 65 even may be 75 when measured in USD. very suddenly. This itself will trigger to Currency Crisis of India.

Inflation would have reached far high by then however since market will be doing good overall liquidity will take care of people's sentiments. But when music is off and Inflation is at it's top, There will be lot tough time to fact. 

Another interesting opportunity that may arise of this is if currency crisis first start in Western world, and INR is fully convertible by then, there is also a remote possibility of huge surge to INR vs USD or Euro e.g. in Range of 20 - 25 

Both these possibilities are there and events to come in years ahead will decide where it will go.

P.S. : Every bull market will have corrections I am not sure of that will be as radical as Robert Prechter says but there can be corrections. " However till the time there is a Direct pipeline between Fed to all Brilliant Wall street  Investment Banks and Investment Banks to BSE I do not see any reason for change in Trend"


  1. Sensex is saluting Lord Ganesha.Well, We have all seen the market run-up this year, especially the rise of the last two weeks. The BSE Sensex has risen from 17,555 on April 01st, 2010 to 19,900 on September 17th, 2010, and is expected to climb further. That is a 13.39% jump in half the Financial Year.

  2. The debt reduction talks are breaking down causing more volatility, markets will soon make a new low and reverse. Please visit for accurate market analysis